MIT AI Risk Repository · Risk Sub-Category · 21.02.02
Model prediction uncertainty
Category: Model-level risk
Description
"Uncertainty in model prediction plays an important role in affecting decision-making activities, and the quantified uncertainty is closely associated with risk assessment. In particular, uncertainty in model prediction underpins many crucial decisions related to life or safety- critical applications [73]."
From Towards risk-aware artificial intelligence and machine learning systems: An overview (Zhang2022), as extracted by the MIT AI Risk Repository (CC BY 4.0).
Classification
- Subdomain
- 7.3 Lack of capability or robustness
- Causal entity
- AI
- Intent
- Unintentional
- Timing
- Other
Subdomain definition: AI systems that fail to perform reliably or effectively under varying conditions, exposing them to errors and failures that can have significant consequences, especially in critical applications or areas that require moral reasoning.
Real-world incidents in this subdomain
- Purported AI Name-Reading System Reportedly Skipped and Misannounced Graduates at Arizona's Glendale Community College Commencement
- PocketOS Production Database Was Reportedly Deleted by Cursor AI Agent Running Claude Opus 4.6
- Baidu Apollo Go Robotaxis Stopped in Traffic During Reported System Failure in Wuhan, Stranding Some Passengers
- Purportedly AI-Enabled Targeting System Was Reportedly Implicated in Deadly U.S. Strike on Iranian Primary School
- Claude Code Agent Reportedly Deleted DataTalks.Club Production Infrastructure, Database, and Snapshots via Terraform
- Purportedly AI-Generated Sepsis Alert Reportedly Prompted Potentially Inappropriate IV Fluid Administration for a Dialysis Patient, Averted by Clinician Intervention