AI incident ·
NJ Transit's Use of Modeling Software Miscalculated Storm Surge Threat Level
In brief
An AI system built by National Weather Service and deployed by New Jersey Transit allegedly harmed New Jersey Transit and New Jersey Transit Passengers.
- Risk domain
- AI system safety, failures, and limitations
- Occurred
- Coverage
- 2 reports
What happened
New Jersey Transit's use of a federal government storm modeling software underestimated the threat of storm surges to the Meadows Maintenance Complex, leaving millions of dollars worth of equipment in the rail yard before Hurricane Sandy struck.
Laws that address this harm
Policy angle: Classified under AI system safety, failures, and limitations (Lack of capability or robustness) in the MIT AI Risk Repository taxonomy; 5 recorded instruments address this use case.
- India DPDP Act
- Law on Artificial Intelligence (2025)
- Law No. 132/2025 on artificial intelligence
- EU AI Act
- Texas Responsible AI Governance Act (TRAIGA)
Matched from the record's risk domain and country to the instruments recorded here. A reviewer can correct the match in the repository (data/external/incident_overrides.yaml).
News reports (2)
Titles link to the original publisher; report text is not reproduced here.
Who was involved
- Alleged deployer
- New Jersey Transit
- Alleged developer
- National Weather Service
- Alleged harmed party
- New Jersey Transit, New Jersey Transit Passengers
Classification (MIT AI Risk Repository taxonomy)
- Risk domain
- AI system safety, failures, and limitations
- Risk subdomain
- 7.3 Lack of capability or robustness
- Causal entity
- Human
- Intent
- Unintentional
- Timing
- Pre-deployment
- Harm level
- —
- Sectors
- —
- Countries
- —
Risk entries describing this failure mode
Entries from the MIT AI Risk Repository coded to subdomain 7.3.
- Reliability issues
"Relying on general-purpose AI products that fail to fulfil their intended function can lead to harm. For example, general- purpose AI systems can make up facts (‘hallucination’), generate erroneous computer code, or pro...
- Type 2: Bigger than expected
Harm can result from AI that was not expected to have a large impact at all, such as a lab leak, a surprisingly addictive open-source product, or an unexpected repurposing of a research prototype.
- Type 3: Worse than expected
AI intended to have a large societal impact can turn out harmful by mistake, such as a popular product that creates problems and partially solves them only for its users.
- Ethics and Morality Issues
LMs need to pay more attention to universally accepted societal values at the level of ethics and morality, including the judgement of right and wrong, and its relationship with social norms and laws.
- Safe learning
"AGIs should avoid making fatal mistakes during the learning phase. Subproblems include safe exploration and distributional shift (DeepMind, OpenAI), and continual learning (Berkeley)."
- Malign belief distributions
"Christiano (2016) argues that the universal distribution M (Hutter, 2005; Solomonoff, 1964a,b, 1978) is malign. The argument is somewhat intricate, and is based on the idea that a hypothesis about the world often includ...
- Meta-cognition
"Agents that reason about their own computational resources and logically uncertain events can encounter strange paradoxes due to Godelian limitations (Fallenstein and Soares, 2015; Soares and Fallenstein, 2014, 2017) an...
- Technical and operational risks
"To date, technical limitations and vulnerabilities are present in most generative AI models in various contexts. Consequently, malicious users find it easier to breach an AI system’s safety and ethical guardrails to e...
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Source record: incident #536 on the AI Incident Database · all 2 reports